Using EMDYN Platform to prepare for and respond to pandemics

Introduction

The impact of decision-making has scarcely been in sharper focus than over the past 18 months as governments and public health bodies sought ways to manage the Covid-19 pandemic. The timing of decisions to contain the spread of virus through closing borders, imposing lockdowns or localised restrictions has been all-important. In many countries delays in introducing such measures have had a big effect on infection rates and, sadly, mortalities while countries who acted fast have arguably produced measurably better outcomes. The key to planning for and responding to any future pandemics is surely to achieve a much faster and more efficient handle on data on human mobility which is absolutely central to modelling the spread of a virus.

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The Information Gap

Working with limited information for much of the time has undoubtedly constrained the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Whether it is the basic virology, the uncertainty as to how fast the virus spreads, exactly how it affects those infected or how human mobility cultivates it, this information gap has affected how governments respond to the virus effectively and continues to present a risk in the case of further spikes in Covid-19 outbreaks, or indeed future pandemics. In addition to physical measures such as development and delivery of vaccines or stockpiling medical and protective equipment, governments and responders will need faster access to key data insights at the earliest stages of a potential pandemic.

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Unlocking an intelligence-led information framework to help guide preventative measures in the future will be vital. EMDYN has been rapidly creating a capability that can support such responses throughout the various phases of pandemics. Through access to a global dataset of geolocated device data, EMDYN can provide accurate insights into human mobility across the world, from a tactical inner-city scale to strategic global connectedness modelling.

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Using this data, and the analysis derived from it, governments and responders can efficiently allocate resources, establish monitoring procedures, and even assess the effectiveness of containment efforts. This information is invaluable in defining policy at a time of crisis, when the margin for error is at its lowest and its role at each stage is summarised in the graphic below.

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An example of how EMDYN location intelligence might have informed decision making goes back to December 2019. The virology behind Covid-19 was then scarcely known yet, using location intelligence, the potential for transmission based on patterns of life in affected areas and connectedness with other parts of the world, would have flagged a significant risk of global spread and its geographic focus. As understanding of the virus improved and cases began to be identified in other countries, the data could have helped in containment efforts and epidemiological modelling. Accurate and reliable information on human mobility is vital to complete the intelligence picture of pandemic risk, while ongoing monitoring of mobility helps manage continued risk as we return to some normality.

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Initial Risk Assessment: Mobility within and from Wuhan

EMDYN Geospatial Intelligence software (GEO) forms an integral part of EMDYN Platform which draws together layers of data from a broad raft of sources to provide a comprehensive analysis tool. It connects to a massive bank of location data and up to date satellite imagery to provide unparalleled insights into situations, events or patterns of movement. During the first phase, when a potential epidemic or pandemic is identified but not yet necessarily well understood, EMDYN Platform can rapidly provide insights to guide initial risk assessments. By studying mobility patterns in and from a particular area of disease outbreak, the potential scale of transmission or geographic vulnerabilities to this transmission can be quickly mapped.

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Here the data shows the movement across Wuhan, China of people located near the Huanan Seafood Market between 16 December 2019 and 15 January 2020. In the case of the Covid-19 outbreak, this location mapping could have quickly shown the potential for local transmission and also identified close connectedness to Western European and North American population centres. At the early stage of the disease outbreak, this intelligence can inform decisions to impose travel restrictions to and from high-risk areas or to allocate testing and monitor resources to dominant avenues of mobility. In a more tactical application, the data can equally provide an instrument to assist in contact tracing from identified cases. Below, location data shows the largest clusters of foreign travel destinations ex-Wuhan Tianhe International Airport between 1-10 January 1-10, 2020.

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As more information on the properties of the virus emerges, EMDYN Platform data can also act as a significant force multiplier to predictive modelling of transmission and global spread. Using actual evidence and accurate mobility data delivers greater predictability and reliability compared to virological models purely based on population density and high-level mobility patterns. This adds a valuable dimension beyond strictly operating based on incidence of the virus which itself is likely to result in decisions always being behind the curve. EMDYN provides both the data, and the analysis that can activate the full potential of health infrastructure when facing such a challenging pandemic.

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Staying Ahead of Transmission: Mobility within Europe

As a pandemic accelerates, when multiple hotspots of disease transmission have been established, EMDYN location intelligence can play a key role in helping to contain the spread. Once Covid-19 reached Europe and started to spread in a significant way, policy makers found themselves chasing behind mobility patterns and closing down particular avenues of travel only after transmission through them had already been observed. Analysis of these mobility patterns in advance, and during the spread allows a much greater degree of situational awareness that can inform necessary containment efforts. Where containment is not feasible or ineffective, this monitoring also provides continuous guidance for the allocation of testing and medical resources.

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To demonstrate this, EMDYN analysts conducted data-driven research into the movement of individuals from and between Covid-19 hotspots in Europe. The chart below shows concentrations of mobility from Northern Italy to the Netherlands over the period of 15 January to 14 March 2020. These concentrations align with outbreaks in South-eastern France, Southern Germany, Hamburg and Southern Netherlands. Such data analysis helps to better understand the correlation between patterns of mobility and the observed spread of the disease, so assisting efforts to halt the ongoing spread of the virus as well as potential future epidemics.

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Detailed paths of movement are revealed along highways and into cities, allowing the identification of stops along the way or follow-on travel that occurred. This incredibly powerful EMDYN Platform data can be used in many different ways, from a broad strategic level to study movement patterns down to very tactical levels at which individual risk contacts can be identified.

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This chart highlights areas where travellers from Covid-19 affected areas in Italy over the period of 15 January to 14 March 2020 have converged or spent extended periods of time. Identifying such hotspots, and comparing them to current information about the regional spread of Covid-19, shows a very strong correlation between these mobility patterns and the intensity of outbreaks. Eastern areas of France, south-western Germany (as well as the city of Hamburg) and Southern Netherlands

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stand out as destinations or intermediary stops in the movement patterns. These areas lie within these affected countries where Covid-19 had initially expanded into larger sections of local populations in comparison to the rest of these countries.

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While this particular subset of individuals traveling from northern Italy towards the Netherlands only provides a partial view of the total mobility taking place within Europe, both from Italy and between other outbreak hotspots, it already provides significant insights into confirmed risk areas and the direction of transmission. EMDYN Platform data and methodology offer real potential to understand and foresee the spread of Covid-19 or other potential pandemics in a complex and tightly interwoven environment.

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Assessment and Enforcement of Response Measures

In addition to the monitoring and analysis of mobility within and between communities, EMDYN Platform data is also highly relevant to the enforcement and evaluation of containment efforts. Limiting mobility and gatherings are key components of pandemic response, but enforcement takes up significant resources. Monitoring current mobility and proximity of devices, compared to established patterns of activity in a non-pandemic situation, is a rapid and reliable instrument to minimise such risk.

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At the most granular level, the tactical application of this data can even be used to identify clusters of contacts within these broader patterns of movement. This means that specific events or encounters could effectively be pinpointed and thus allow proactive screening for potential infections. Given the current emphasis on containment measures, anomalous movements or group events could also easily be identified from this data to understand potential vectors of transmission despite government efforts, possibly down to the level of informing law enforcement of needed intervention to disrupt further transmission.

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Based on this information, policy makers and responders are able to adjust enforcement measures as their implementation evolves. When risks do emerge, additional testing and medical response resources can be redeployed based on this intelligence to help limit the potential for continued or renewed transmission to occur.

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EMDYN Platform in the Wider World

EMDYN Platform is a high performance and extremely flexible technological analytical and investigative framework, facilitating high grade processing on extremely large data sets. It delivers a set of capabilities to help you make better informed decisions using fresh, accurate geo location data. EMDYN Geo opens up the world of Geospatial Intelligence Fusion proficiencies which allow you to work with exclusive intelligence data to help build a safer tomorrow.

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EMDYN Platform offers unprecedented data visualisation and data interaction capabilities, delivering situational awareness, triage and deep analysis competences. We have illustrated how it can perform in a pandemic context. Beyond that, it has a host of applications across security and intelligence situations and is a genuinely flexible software solution, as it can be securely hosted externally or in-house to the user’s preference. A key feature is that it is specifically designed to be easily integrated with clients’ own data. EMDYN Platform is a modern, future-proof solution that is especially relevant to those working in intelligence and security services who require the most up to date information to plan current operations and predict future possibilities.

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